Predictions: 2030

Started by Univaded_Fox, November 04, 2010, 09:28:19 PM

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Univaded_Fox

In 1997, I visited Disneyland during its renovations for the current Tomorrowland. The Disney Gallery above New Orleans Square was concurrently featuring an exhibit tracing the history of Tomorrowland through its various incarnations. While walking back to our hotel that night, I conceived a vision for The World of 2030. In retrospect my original predictions were somewhat fanciful; but our current closer proximity to 2030 has motivated me to venture once more into more current predictions for what sort of technological status will be at our disposal by this year to come.

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Cameras and Camcorders

We can expect to see Digital Cameras with a resolution of 100 megapixels by 2020. Before then, all Digital Cameras will have minimum 1080p High Definition movie functions.

Hard Disk Drive Camcorders will be superceded by Flash Camcorders by 2015. All Camcorders will film in 1080p by 2020.  By 2030, they will have evolved into even higher resolutions, mirroring the upconversion in television.


Computers

All computers will have built-in wireless internet receivers regardless of design.

By 2020, Hard Disc Drives will have been superceded by Flash Drives. This means everything will run on flash memory rather than our current disc drive-based technology.

As measurements for storage capacities in Megabytes (Millions) dominated the 1990s, and Gigabytes (Billions) dominated the 2000s, the 2010s will be marked by Terabytes (Trillions), and the 2020s by Petabytes (Quadrillions).  

More computers will be marketed with touch screens. Voice recognition software will be perfected. Once combined, this will eliminate the need for Keyboards.

The iPad and HP Slate will herald the demise of the laptop.


Cellular Phones

Fewer cell phones will be marketed with number and key pads. Eventually, all phones will have large touch screens similar to the iPhone. By 2030, the phrase "Microcomputer" will have a new meaning when these devices have capabilities indistinguishable from current (Microcomputer) PCs.

By 2030, iThink will be a reality. The iThink will be an iPhone-style phone with functions trained to respond to simple human brainwaves. It will be possible to operate your phone just by thinking!


Music

Flash media storage will replace Compact Discs entirely. However, because Compact Discs are so well established, people will be less ready to give-up their CD Players. By 2030, CDs will be at the same level of use currently seen by Vinyl Records.

Vinyl will have a small scale comeback when Laser-Playing Phonographs are marketed. Unlike traditional needle-tipped Phonographs, this new generation will play Vinyl Records with Lasers, therefore sparing the vinyl from scratching.

Stereo systems will have wireless internet hookups to facilitate downloading music instantly from the internet onto the stereo's personal flash drive, and onto removable flash drives.


Televisions

By 2015, active marketing of DVDs and DVD Players will have ceased. By 2020, the DVD will be at the same state of disuse currently facing the videotape and VCR. Before the decade is out, a new platform will have been introduced, but this will not be a disc-formatted system. The new platform will be Flash Memory-based, distributing films on small drives similar to the current Jet Flash. These drives will have more than a terabyte of memory, which is greater than twenty times the carrying capacity of current Blue-Ray discs.

By 2015, LCD televisions will have been replaced by LED televisions as the product of choice, although they will continue to be sold for some years afterwards as a low-cost substitute.

By 2020, Flat Panel High Definition Displays will be present in all well-visited public areas, including shopping centers, sports arenas, and even rooms in all of the major hotel chains. By 2030, finding a CRT television still in used will be as difficult as it is now to find a black and white television.

The image displays of 2030 will all feature at least 1,000,000:1 contrast rations, and 1000htz refresh rates.

Three-Dimensional Resolution in the 2010s will be at the same status as High Definition was in the 1990s.

Extreme Definition, an experimental format with 16x the resolution of High Definition, will be in the process of replacing High Definition. The Flash-based storage platforms of 2030 will be designed to carry this resolution.


World Wide Web

The World Wide Web will be distributed via tower and satellite, available at all locations worldwide just as radios collect radio waves.

The technology used to transmit computer, radio, and television signals will have mutated to the point where we will no longer differentiate between the three. It will be commonplace to surf the Web on your television, listen to radio on your computer, and watch a music video for a song playing on your radio. Rather than having separate devices for each function, all devices will have universal capabilities.

By 2030, the existence of file-sharing networks such as YouTube will have been decided. If copyright holders have wisdom, YouTube will be a public forum that freely encourages Remixing. If copyright holders attempt to fight creativity via the law, YouTube and other networks like it will have become non-existent.

Zetta

Quote from: Univaded Fox on November 04, 2010, 09:28:19 PMBy 2030, the existence of file-sharing networks such as YouTube will have been decided. If copyright holders have wisdom, YouTube will be a public forum that freely encourages Remixing. If copyright holders attempt to fight creativity via the law, YouTube and other networks like it will have become non-existent.

Damn ACTA *Shakes fist*
i want a portable hologram computer that i can move about all crazy like and it glows bright neon colors.
and i can use to play soundclips and mix into sentences to irritate people with.

Quote from: Univaded Fox on November 04, 2010, 09:28:19 PM
The iPad and HP Slate will herald the demise of the laptop.
ipad is just a bigger itouch for your porn.

mediar

There are 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those that don't.

Arooo!

Renwaldo

Quote from: mediar on November 05, 2010, 08:16:43 AM
FLYING CARS!!!!
They've already created the technology for those.
They just figured it wouldn't be practical nor safe considering the amount of fuel it takes to get that much weight off the ground.  :P


mediar

Quote from: Renwaldo on November 05, 2010, 11:20:20 AM
Quote from: mediar on November 05, 2010, 08:16:43 AM
FLYING CARS!!!!
They've already created the technology for those.
They just figured it wouldn't be practical nor safe considering the amount of fuel it takes to get that much weight off the ground.  :P




.... PRATICAL FLYING CARS!!!!
There are 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those that don't.

Arooo!

Zetta

i want rocket powered rollerblades so i can be awesome while i overthrow corrupt governments.

Gren

Quote from: Univaded Fox on November 04, 2010, 09:28:19 PM
More computers will be marketed with touch screens. Voice recognition software will be perfected. Once combined, this will eliminate the need for Keyboards.

Despite their current popularity, I don't think touchscreens will work out well for desktop systems in the long run, at least not with some fairly significant design changes. Current designs have some significant ergonomic issues (Gorilla Arm) and are likely to build up a lot of fingerprints.

As for voice recognition, I can think of a few situations where a keyboard would work better, the first being for people who, for whatever reason, cannot speak. Also, a keyboard would be quieter to use if someone is sleeping in the same room.

I imagine I'll always want a keyboard over voice recognition as I type a lot better than I speak, but the developers aren't likely to ask my opinion :)

QuoteThe technology used to transmit computer, radio, and television signals will have mutated to the point where we will no longer differentiate between the three. It will be commonplace to surf the Web on your television, listen to radio on your computer, and watch a music video for a song playing on your radio. Rather than having separate devices for each function, all devices will have universal capabilities.

Web TV (now MSN TV) was developed quite some time ago and doesn't seem to be catching on very well.

Beyond that, I think its more likely that people would just consume television and radio programming via their computer, possibly with the use of external screens and speakers.

Quote from: mediar on November 05, 2010, 08:16:43 AM
FLYING CARS!!!!

Considering how I seen some people drive in their land-based cars, the idea of flying cars is frankly scary.
Gren @ FurAffinity | SoFurry.

WerewolfRedX666


terutt

By 2025 the world's oil supply will stop to plateau and start to drop. While there still is oil being produced, it is too expensive to afford. Two thirds of the world's power lie dormant, stranding billions without power, running water or heat.

It is impossible to grow food with conventional agriculture. The oil-phosphorous based fertilizers that paved the way to the agricultural revolution now cost as much as a large house for one seasons's worth. Governments scramble to subsidize, but there is not enough for everyone. Soil that has been strip-mined of all nutrients by previously subsidized crops such as corn, canola, and soy, finally has the chance to lay fallow. Parts of the Midwest become a dustbowl.

At this point the internet has an effective lifespan of maybe two years, but eventually flickers and dies due to ill repair on the physical infrastructure. Plane rides cost a year's salary. Naval passage, about half a year's. The world is the largest it's ever been since 1910.

Due to vastly increased response times by police forces, social decay runs rampant, and vigilante movements quickly pop up to combat it. Within a year it's well understood that the majority of the "law" is dealt at the end of a barrel.

Everybody grows food. The soil in your backyard becomes better than the tired and strained soil in the farmer's fields. A town lives solely on the strength and brotherhood of those living within it. In 2028, California secedes from the union, quickly followed by most of New England, Utah, Texas, and Dixie. By 2029, the upholders of the original Constitution are diminished to Maryland, DC, and Delaware.

This state of disarray lasts for fifty years, and the worst of it is over in 15. Dependence on wind and solar power solves some woes, but nowhere near the power output that oil provided. Breakthroughs in electric vehicles allow some infrastructure repair after 20 years and the partial resumption of the supply lines to natural gas and coal power. After 30 years of silence, the first post-oil telecommunications network arises between the campuses of the University of California.

We get truly out of the rough when the resurrected ITER experimental fusion plant creates the first indefinitely sustainable fusion reaction in the year 3020. It powers the majority of Europe without interruption.

Renwaldo

That's a very Californian perspective. What state of affairs will we be in around the same time?  :P

terutt

I assume probably paired up with Washington and Oregon, Idaho might be in there too. Hell it's been seriously discussed before. We're even building high speed rail between Vancouver, Portland and Seattle as we speak. But our population is too small, and the growing season is too short to become powerful when isolated. We do have an abundance of reliable and plentiful hydroelectric power. We'll be California's hat.

I say California would go first and come back first because of the amount of population, trade, reliance on fruit and vegetable crops instead of subsidized crops. It gets a lot of sunlight in the south and a lot of wind in the north for good power. New england doesn't have enough good farmland, and most of the Midwest has too short a growing season, and they've been growing wheat without crop rotation for the last 50 years. The south is excellent for farmland, but they have a talent vacuum. The best gathering of minds being Vanderbilt. Texas big, smart (no, seriously) and good for crops as well, but only half the state is arable, the other half being desert. El Paso will be a ghost town in a decade (along with other aqueduct towns like Vegas, and the majority of Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada). Utah might be powerful, but it's too small, and intellect will flee a theocracy.

Prairies will actually be in good shape, if they can survive every winter. Maritimes...like New England, maybe even paired up together. One thing that will maybe assure some power is the fact that Europe will stop fishing in their waters, ensuring a fairly steady supply of seafood.

Drake Wingfire

Well we already have SSDs (solid state drives) they still got some issues such as size and price (as usual with most new computer storage tech)They are how ever lightning fast as there is no disc seek time!

I cannot see pad-PCs replacing laptops though, laptops will probably evolve to be much thinner, lighter, faster etc. Its a safe bet they will all have touch screens. Pad systems still lack effective typing, you would be stuck getting external keyboards/ mice (easy with bluetooth tech) and bulky stands to make them as "place-able" as laptops. If anything I see Pads being the PDAs of the generation.

Regarding DVD tech i more so see it being a backwards compatible technology like its been with computers, we started with only being able to use CDs with our systems, then DVDs became more main stream and CDs did no die, they instead got carried over, kind of like how you see every computer can read and write to CDs with a decent drive, and DVD players usually come with the kind of integrated programing and hardware that allows them to play video CDs and music ones as well. My guess would be that once the blu-ray phase has come to its peak we are gonna see CD/DVD/BLU drives for computers. Its just that CD based technology has become such a universal medium, if it does go, it will be a LOOOONG time.

But thats all just my opinion :P

I would love to see much greater electric car technology, maybe somthing like a solar paint coating that could be used to coat the roofs of electric cars that way they could charge in the sun easily, or just better solar technology as a general, even the best crystal based solar panels have about 15-20% efficiency and the old fashioned copper-like ones have way less, about 8%. Electric car tech is getting better, but we do need FAR better battery technology, like a light weight alternative with a better life cycle.

Acco

#12
Television: Google TV / Roku / appletv ; your television will just stream content from major providers with advertising added in on the fly. The concept of TV channels will cease to exist.

Phones: Android, with hooks into cloud computing infrastructure - Amazon EC2/S3, Google Gears, Windows Azure. Global telcomm conglomerates offering worldwide roaming at reasonable rates. iphones will be in there, somewhere, forgotten.

Computer: Thin terminals hooked up to the same file stores/computing infrastructure your phone uses. Seamless access to any of your files, anywhere, anytime. Computing infrastructure will be rented, rather than owned, same with storage. Buying a thin terminal will guarantee your access to X resources with the purchase price. You think not? I point you to the idea of managed services today - Google Apps for Businesses/Education; Microsoft Office Online; Sabre's solutions for WestJet and other Airlines (look at the terminals in the airports)/ The future? -> Chrome OS.

Storage: Limited amounts of flash in each device, probably no more than is necessary to load up the basic environment to connect to web services. The concept of absolute amounts of storage won't exist to the end user, ever.

Univaded_Fox

Filmmaking will be completely digitized once 8K and 16K cameras replace celluloid.  All theaters will convert to digital projection.  Even basic consumer editing software will be superior to the most current revision of Final Cut Pro. 

Superfoxy

#14
I predict:

Less things will change than you think they will.

Politics will still be messed up, but in different ways.

Some changes will occur that no-one now will have thought of.

People will still be making predictions about the future that will prove far from accurate.
What is this I don't even. What I put here?